Are UK bonds safe?
Gilts and government bonds
If interest rates fall to 4% by the end of this year and inflation keeps falling, getting paid £4.38 for every £100 invested over 10 years looks like a good deal. Many gilts pay coupons semi-annually, so you get paid every six months. Like the maturity date, the coupon yield is included in the name of the bond.
We expect UK bonds to deliver annualised2 returns of around 4.4%-5.4% over the next decade, compared with the 0.8%-1.8% 10-year annualised returns we expected at the end of 2021, before the rate-hiking cycle began.
Gilt and index-linked gilt funds – mainly invest in bonds issued by the UK government. They typically have a lower risk of default and lower yields than corporate bonds. Index-linked gilts typically increase any income paid, and the capital repaid at redemption, in line with inflation.
UK gilts are exempt from Capital Gains. Interest on gilts are liable to income tax unless held in a SIPP or ISA so you would need to report the interest if not held in either of these accounts.
We have a government bond market that's currently providing yields higher than they've been for years. You're being paid to hold bonds, regardless of whether there's any change in bond value. And some of the headwinds that have caused notable losses in bonds since the start of 2022 seem to be subsiding.
You can choose from a government or corporate bond. Government bonds, also known as gilts, are low risk and are generally considered safer than corporate bonds, so you'll likely get a lower rate in comparison.
Bonds | Yield | Month |
---|---|---|
UK 3Y | 4.32 | 0.229% |
UK 5Y | 4.21 | 0.204% |
UK 7Y | 4.16 | 0.204% |
UK 20Y | 4.70 | 0.202% |
Range: 4.725 to 4.8.
Bonds | Yield | Day |
---|---|---|
UK 7Y | 4.05 | -0.045% |
UK 20Y | 4.63 | -0.057% |
UK 30Y | 4.67 | -0.054% |
UK 2Y | 5.37 | 0.960% |
How are UK bonds performing?
Corporate bond yields are at very attractive levels
Neither gilt yields nor credit spreads are at their peak, but the two combined mean that the overall yield on corporate bonds is around 6 per cent.
Borrowing costs for governments around the world have risen to the highest level in decades as investors bet that stubbornly high inflation will force global central banks to leave interest rates higher for longer.
According to our latest forecasts, we now expect UK and global ex-UK (GBP hedged) bonds to return around 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively, on an annualised basis over the next decade, compared with our previous 10-year annualised forecasts of 1.3% and 1.3%, respectively, before the rate-hiking cycle began.
Gilts are widely viewed as being among the safest type of bond. However, the interest rate, or yield, available from Gilts is usually quite low – as with all investments, to enjoy potentially higher returns, you need to take on more risk.
In the UK, there are three main ways you can buy government bonds: Directly from HM Debt Management Office or an authorised agent. Via shares in a bond ETF or fund. By trading the government bond futures market using spread bets or CFDs.
It has been a similar story for UK gilts, even if the price action has been less severe than in 2022. However, at the risk of repeating the message from last year, bonds still look particularly cheap – and conditions may now be turning in their favour, if the price recovery in late 2023 is to be believed.
My expectation for 2024 is that it will offer a great chance for bond investors to potentially benefit from the high yields that the asset class currently offers, providing that credit research teams can be successful in telling the difference between companies that can refinance their bonds easily and those that might ...
Gilts are the most common form of bond available in the UK. As above, a standard gilt issued by the UK government pays a fixed coupon yield every 6 months until the gilt's maturity date.
Gilts can be sold directly to the public through the UK Government Debt Management Office (DMO). In return for buying the bond, you'll receive an interest payment from the issuer known as a coupon. This is usually paid once or twice a year, depending on the type of bond.
- Bonds – corporate and government.
- Gold.
- High-interest current accounts.
- Real estate.
Which country bonds are safest?
The U.S. vs.
Government bonds from the U.S. Treasury are some of the most secure worldwide, while those floated by other countries may carry a greater degree of risk. Due to this nearly risk-free nature, market participants and analysts use Treasuries as a benchmark in comparing the risk associated with securities.
How safe are fixed rate bonds? As long as your provider is covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, your funds are guaranteed to be secure for up to £85,000. All Shawbrook fixed rate bonds are eligible for FSCS protection.
A 5-year Fixed Rate Bond could be a good home for your savings if you don't need to access your funds for 5 years. Fixed Rate Bonds often offer better rates than notice accounts or easy access accounts.
Range: 4.5 to 4.65.
References
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040115/reasons-why-china-buys-us-treasury-bonds.asp
- https://uk.allianzgi.com/en-gb/insights/outlook-and-commentary/uk-gilts-offer-good-value-now
- https://www.barrons.com/market-data/bonds/tmbmkgb-05y?countrycode=bx
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021615/what-safest-investment.asp
- https://groww.in/mutual-funds/debt-funds/gilt-funds
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp
- https://www.wintwealth.com/blog/what-are-the-risks-of-bonds/
- https://www.sharingpensions.co.uk/gilt-yields-latest.htm
- https://www.pictet.com/ch/en/insights/uk-economy-and-bonds-2024-outlook
- http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/united-kingdom/
- https://www.barrons.com/market-data/bonds/tmbmkgb-01y?countrycode=bx
- https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1407/economics/who-owns-government-debt/
- http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-historical-data/united-kingdom/3-months/
- http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/
- https://m.economictimes.com/mf/analysis/best-gilt-mutual-funds-to-invest-in-2024/articleshow/106976550.cms
- https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/articles/latest-thoughts/markets-economy/why-bonds-are-back-thanks-to-higher-rates
- https://blog.moneyfarm.com/en/investments/low-risk-investments-in-the-uk/
- https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/2-year-note-yield
- https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate
- https://www.vanguard.co.uk/professional/insights-education/insights/improved-bond-outlook-in-an-era-of-positive-real-rates
- https://ycharts.com/indicators/3_month_t_bill
- https://www.dmo.gov.uk/help/glossary/
- https://www.dezerv.in/bonds/high-yield-bonds/
- https://www.investec.com/en_gb/wealth/private-clients/insights/investing/why-its-time-to-consider-adding-gilts-to-your-portfolio.html
- https://www.barrons.com/market-data/bonds/tmbmkgb-20y?countrycode=bx
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2022/03/15/run-dont-walk-to-buy-treasury-i-bonds-paying-over-7-to-beat-inflation/
- https://www.redmayne.co.uk/news/november-2023/gilts-explained-how-do-uk-government-bonds-work
- https://www.basunivesh.com/gilt-funds-vs-bank-fixed-deposits/
- https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/experts-forecast-stock-bond-returns-2024-edition
- https://www.hl.co.uk/news/what-does-the-2024-spring-budget-mean-for-government-bonds-gilts
- https://www.ig.com/uk/bonds/what-are-government-bonds
- https://www.gocompare.com/savings/national-savings-and-investments/
- https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/334/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/
- https://www.abrdn.com/en-us/institutional/insights-and-research/io-2024-fixed-income-can-2024-be-the-year-of-the-bond-us
- https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/trading-guides/what-are-government-bonds
- https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/best-bond-etfs-to-buy-now
- https://groww.in/mutual-funds/category/best-gilt-mutual-funds
- https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/04/what-are-bond-yields-and-why-are-they-at-25-year-high-in-uk
- https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/how-do-fed-rates-get-funded/
- https://www.barclays.co.uk/smart-investor/investments-explained/cash-and-bonds/corporate-and-uk-government-bonds/
- https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-does-the-United-Kingdom-owe-China
- https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/next-uk-government-faces-toughest-challenge-since-1950s-debt-ifs-2024-01-25/
- https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/why-to-consider-longer-term-bonds-now
- https://www.dmo.gov.uk/responsibilities/gilt-market/buying-selling/purchase-sale-service/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/treasury-fed-reserve.asp
- https://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/news/private-investors-ownership-of-uk-government-bonds-drops-to-lowest-level-since-1996/
- https://www.dmo.gov.uk/responsibilities/gilt-market/
- https://www.etmoney.com/mutual-funds/debt/gilt/66
- https://theconversation.com/uk-bonds-have-hit-a-25-year-high-heres-what-that-means-for-the-economy-215188
- https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-asia/insights/global-insight-2024-outlook-highlights-bonds-are-back
- https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/interest-rates-affect-bonds.html
- https://baroncabot.com/blog/what-to-invest-in-during-a-recession
- https://www.justetf.com/uk/market-overview/top-50-bond-etfs-with-the-highest-dividend-yield-in-gbp.html
- https://www.alliancebernstein.com/corporate/en/insights/investment-insights/fixed-income-outlook-2024-bonds-roar-back.html
- https://blog.lgim.com/categories/markets-and-economics/who-buys-all-the-gilts/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080615/china-owns-us-debt-how-much.asp
- https://www.trustnet.com/news/13401827/the-18-funds-most-recommended-by-best-buy-lists-in-2024
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/government-bond.asp
- https://tradingeconomics.com/gukg6m:ind
- https://www.barclays.co.uk/smart-investor/investments/most-popular/gilts-and-bonds/
- https://www.ajbell.co.uk/our-services/investment-options/bonds
- https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-sectors/bonds
- https://www.columbiathreadneedle.co.uk/en/inst/insights/the-bank-of-england-is-rushing-to-sell-its-gilts-for-investors-this-could-be-an-opportunity/
- https://www.hl.co.uk/news/is-now-the-time-to-buy-government-bonds
- https://moneyfactscompare.co.uk/savings-accounts/5-year-fixed-rate-bonds/
- https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/securities-services/trading-services/uk-gilt-crisis-collateral
- https://www.trustnet.com/news/13406150/the-case-for-and-against-owning-gilts-in-2024
- https://www.dmo.gov.uk/responsibilities/gilt-market/buying-selling/
- https://www.jupiteram.com/uk/en/individual/insights/assessing-the-outlook-for-bond-markets-in-2024/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/090616/5-countries-own-most-us-debt.asp
- https://blog.moneyfarm.com/en/financial-planning/invest-100000-100k/
- https://www.brewin.co.uk/group/media/news-and-comments/2024-02/gilt-yields-rise-with-inflation-and-potential-budget-giveaways
- https://www.moneyhelper.org.uk/en/savings/types-of-savings/premium-bonds
- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67262339
- https://markets.ft.com/data/bonds
- https://blog.moneyfarm.com/en/financial-planning/how-to-invest-1000-the-best-ways-to-invest-your-first-1000/
- https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/5-year-note-yield
- https://www.wintwealth.com/blog/top-government-bonds-in-india/
- https://www.hl.co.uk/news/what-you-need-to-know-about-buying-government-bonds-gilts
- https://www.quora.com/The-UK-owns-about-755-000-000-000-of-the-USA-debt-how-much-more-of-the-USA-debt-could-the-UK-own-and-what-impact-does-that-have-on-both-countries
- https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/uk
- https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/247229/want-to-buy-uk-government-bonds-be-careful.aspx
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/advantages-and-disadvantages-buying-stocks-instead-of-bonds/
- https://www.tbsnews.net/features/panorama/us-keeps-printing-money-why-cant-we-539758
- https://www.unbiased.co.uk/discover/personal-finance/savings-investing/what-are-the-safest-investments-in-the-uk
- https://dollarsandsense.org/archives/2011/0111reuss1.html
- https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/12/14/should-investors-keep-on-buying-bonds/
- https://www.lcp.com/our-viewpoint/2024/01/navigating-the-2024-gilt-yield-conundrum-a-tale-of-two-markets
- https://m.economictimes.com/mf/analysis/best-gilt-mutual-funds-to-invest-in-march-2024/articleshow/108806940.cms
- https://bondmarket.ftadviser.com/
- https://www.shawbrook.co.uk/savings/articles/what-is-a-fixed-rate-bond/
- https://community.hmrc.gov.uk/customerforums/pt/d65cca19-e296-ee11-a81c-000d3a0d1e21
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/monetary-policy-recession.asp