Who is going to buy all this US debt? (2024)

Who is going to buy all this US debt? (1)

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Rod Khleif

Master Multi-Family Real Estate, Create Multi-Generational Wealth & Freedom, Invest Passively or Actively | 1-on-1 Expert Coach | Multifamily & Apartment Investing | Real Estate Investing | #1 Best-Selling Author

Published Jan 22, 2024

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Bloomberg recently estimated that interest expense on the United States' $33T debt just crossed $1T on an annualized basis. Federal receipts are $4.4T, which means almost a quarter of all revenue is consumed by interest. Interest expense has doubled over the past two years and will probably move higher with 2024 auction activity!

"Rather go to bed without dinner than to rise in debt." - Ben Franklin

We certainly have come a long way from the frugal beginnings of the country. The chart below shows how rapidly and seemingly out of control the US debt has skyrocketed to around $100K for every person in the country.

Who is going to buy all this US debt? (3)

In 2024, 33% of our outstanding public debt matures ($7.6T) and must be reissued in a higher rate environment. On top of this $7.6T, the federal deficit could hit $2.0T in 2024, which means the Treasury would have to issue nearly $10T of new debt. The question is: where is this money going to come from and what impact will this have on interest rates and taxes?

Of the $33T of debt, roughly 78% is owned by the public (70% US vs 30% International). The major US public owners include the FED ($6T, but they are no longer buyers), mutual funds, banks, states, pension funds and insurance companies. The international buying appetite has been falling over the past 10 years (dropping from 40% to the current 30%). The major international owners of US debt include Japan ($1.1T), China, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and smaller amounts from the rest of the world. After the recent weak treasury auction, US government officials warned that they are seeing waning demand from international buyers. China has been a net seller and Japan seems tapped out. The strong dollar is also working against the Treasury. The US dollar strength versus other currencies makes it attractive for international owners to sell US debt and use the dollars to buy their own currency, boosting the value.

The remaining debt (22%) is owned by inter-government agencies including Social Security and Medicare. If you believe that Social Security and Medicare are bleeding off their surplus, then logically they will be net sellers over time as they use reserves to pay recipients.

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The auctions will come down to simple supply and demand. We know the supply is increasing and the demand is falling, which is bad for pricing. If the rates on Treasuries are attractive (higher) relative to other options, then we should be able to reissue the debt. In the most recent auction, the FED had to pivot to shorter term notes to entice buyers. Today, the 6-month treasury note yields 5.25% versus 4.0% for the 10-year, so clearly interest costs will increase in the short term if the US government is forced to issue short-term debt to attract buyers. If we don't get our deficits under control, the situation will only grow worse.

There is evidence, however, that higher interest rates on US debt are attracting new buyers. Two European money managers, Rathbones and Pictet, both recently announced an increase in their holdings of US Treasuries due to the attractive rates. Currently the US 10-year (4.0%) is higher than in the UK (3.8%), Spain (3.2%), Germany (2.2%) and Switzerland (0.8%), so it seems attractive relative to these options.

We are not sure how this will all shake out, but at some point, something has to give because the trajectory we are on is unsustainable. At the end of the day, someone will have to pay for the sins of the past. Taxes need to move higher, and spending needs to be cut; both moves would hurt the economy. A weakening economy would have a ripple effect across all businesses and commercial real estate. We do not think the tax and financing benefits awarded to multi-family would be impacted during the "balance the budget phase" that is coming, due to the core nature of our product. However, the cloudy outlook reinforces our conservative thinking when evaluating deals.

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Real Estate Market Update Who is going to buy all this US debt? (7)

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Ilan Brodsky

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3mo

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great job rod!!!

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MOMINUL ISLAM

Digital Marketer | SEO Service Provider | YouTube SEO Expert | Social Media Marketing Manager | Google and Facebook Ads Service Provider | B2B Lead Generation. A Digital Marketing Specialist at Outsourcing BD Institute.

3mo

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Great

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Who is going to buy all this US debt? (2024)

FAQs

Who is buying the US debt? ›

The international buying appetite has been falling over the past 10 years (dropping from 40% to the current 30%). The major international owners of US debt include Japan ($1.1T), China, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and smaller amounts from the rest of the world.

Who owns most of the US debt in 2024? ›

Of the total held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 797.7 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Other foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.

Who is the top owner of US debt? ›

Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries. All values are adjusted to 2023 dollars. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

How much does the US owe China? ›

US Treasurys Owned by China, in USD Billions

$797.7 billion of the total $8,023.7 billion U.S. national debt.

What happens if China sells US debt? ›

It's going to put it into bonds of other countries. It will have to buy other currencies in order to invest in those countries' bonds. So US interest rates will no doubt rise as the supply of US Treasury bonds suddenly increases and the dollar will fall as China moves a lot of money out of dollars.

How can the US get out of debt? ›

Maintaining interest rates at low levels can help stimulate the economy, generate tax revenue, and, ultimately, reduce the national debt. Lower interest rates make it easier for individuals and businesses to borrow money for goods and services, which creates jobs and increases tax revenues.

Which country has the highest debt? ›

At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.

Do countries still owe the US money from WWII? ›

The case of debts arising from World War II is somewhat less complicated. At this time only four countries, discussed below, owe the U.S. government debts of any size arising from World War II programs to aid our allies. Other countries have paid their debts in full.

Why is the US in so much debt? ›

One of the main culprits is consistently overspending. When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues. To pay that deficit, the government borrows money.

Does the US owe China money? ›

China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt. 1 However, it does not own the most U.S. debt of any foreign country. Nations borrowing from each other may be as old as the concept of money.

Who does China owe debt to? ›

China has little overseas debt, and a high national savings rate. In addition, most of the debt is state owned – state-controlled banks loaned funds to state-controlled firms – giving the government the ability to manage the situation.

Where does China own land in the US? ›

China owns 384,000 acres of American agricultural land. That's a 30% increase just since 2019. And on top of that, they own land near an air force base in North Dakota.

How much debt is Russia in? ›

In the latest reports, Russia National Government Debt reached 281.6 USD bn in Feb 2024. The country's Nominal GDP reached 494.7 USD bn in Mar 2023.

How much is the United States worth? ›

The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP).

How does China buy US debt? ›

From a national perspective, China buys U.S. debt due to its complex financial system. The central bank must purchase U.S. Treasuries and other foreign assets to keep cash inflows from causing inflation. In the case of China, this phenomenon is unusual.

How does the US buy its own debt? ›

The National Debt Explained

money from federal income tax), a budget deficit results. To pay for this deficit, the federal government borrows money by selling marketable securities such as Treasury bonds , bills , notes , floating rate notes , and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) .

Is the Fed buying debt? ›

The short answer: the Federal Reserve has indirectly bought the vast majority of debt issued since the crisis began. Whether this is debt monetization or more conventional quantitative easing is up for debate.

How much of the US debt is owned by the US? ›

While U.S. government debt is perhaps the most widely held class of security in the world, 21.8% of the public debt, or $6.87 trillion, is owned by another arm of the federal government itself.

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