The golden rule of investing | Robeco Global (2024)

Warren Buffet’s first rule of investing is to never lose money; his second is to never forget the first rule. This golden rule is key for long-term capital protection and growth. One oft-used strategy to limit losses in turbulent markets is an allocation to gold. Gold investing is widely regarded as a safe haven during extreme macroeconomic downturns in periods of war, hyperinflation, or major recessions.

But do such allocations to gold really provide the expected protection in practice? And even if so, are there any better ways to mitigate risks? To answer these questions, we revisited the strategic role of gold in investment portfolios and focused on its marginal downside risk reduction benefits relative to bonds and equities.

Our analysis, featured in a new research paper, focuses on annual real returns starting in 1975, when gold became truly tradeable. We took the perspective of a US investor who could strategically invest in equities, bonds, and gold and would care about a wide range of downside risk measures, including downside volatility, loss probability and expected loss.

The key findings of our empirical study are that a modest gold allocation in a traditional mix of equities and bonds reduces the risk of capital losses by around 10% across a wide range of equity-bond allocations. Still, this also reduces the return, leading to a small increase in the return/risk ratio as shown in Figure 1 summarizing the main findings of this study.

Figure 1: Four defensive portfolios

The golden rule of investing | Robeco Global (1)

Source: Lohre, H., and Van Vliet, P. (2023) “The golden rule of investing”, working paper.

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Importantly, however, our simulations show that the downside volatility can be reduced further by adopting a low volatility style in the equity investment and letting this defensive equity allocation replace part of the bond allocation. The portfolio with the lowest downside volatility on a one-year horizon consists of 45% bonds, 45% low-volatility stocks and 10% gold.

Our simulations show that the downside volatility can be reduced further by adopting a low volatility style

As a result, this defensive mix has significantly lower downside risk than a traditional equities/bonds portfolio, with higher returns leading to a large increase in the Sortino ratio. This defensive strategy therefore proves to be an effective way for investors to adhere to Buffet’s golden rule, while still delivering long-term capital growth.

Moreover, additional simulations and robustness checks show that these key findings hold not just for the one-year returns initially considered, but also for a wide range of investment horizons, ranging from one month up to 36 months. While these results are robust when gold futures are used instead of a direct gold investment, adding gold mining stocks is less effective in reducing the downside risk of a low-volatility equity portfolio. Lastly, we document that, while the risk mitigation role of gold is muted in a mean-variance setup, low volatility investing is considered just as relevant as when evaluated through a downside risk lens.

Read the full paper on SSRN

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FAQs

The golden rule of investing | Robeco Global? ›

Warren Buffet's first rule of investing is to never lose money; his second is to never forget the first rule. This golden rule is key for long-term capital protection and growth. One oft-used strategy to limit losses in turbulent markets is an allocation to gold.

What is the golden rule of investing? ›

1 – Never lose money. Let's kick it off with some timeless advice from legendary investor Warren Buffett, who said “Rule No. 1 is never lose money.

What is the Buffett rule of investing? ›

Warren Buffett once said, “The first rule of an investment is don't lose [money]. And the second rule of an investment is don't forget the first rule.

What is the universal rule of investing? ›

A universal rule that most young investors know is diversification, i.e. don't put all of your investing capital into one name. Diversification is a good rule of thumb, but it can also diminish your profits when one of your picks makes a big move while other names don't.

What are the golden rules of investing Warren Buffett? ›

Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” One of Buffett's most famous quotes highlights his focus on value investing. He believes that it is more important to focus on the value a company provides, rather than simply its stock price.

Do 90% of millionaires make over 100k a year? ›

Ninety-three percent of millionaires said they got their wealth because they worked hard, not because they had big salaries. Only 31% averaged $100,000 a year over the course of their career, and one-third never made six figures in any single working year of their career.

What is the 70% rule investing? ›

Basically, the rule says real estate investors should pay no more than 70% of a property's after-repair value (ARV) minus the cost of the repairs necessary to renovate the home. The ARV of a property is the amount a home could sell for after flippers renovate it.

What is the 1 investor rule? ›

The rent charged should be equal to or greater than the investor's mortgage payment to ensure that they at least break even on the property. Multiply the purchase price of the property plus any necessary repairs by 1% to determine a base level of monthly rent.

What is the 80% rule investing? ›

Definition of '80% Rule'

The 80% Rule is a Market Profile concept and strategy. If the market opens (or moves outside of the value area ) and then moves back into the value area for two consecutive 30-min-bars, then the 80% rule states that there is a high probability of completely filling the value area.

What is the 7% loss rule? ›

A drop of 7% takes a 7.5% gain to fully recover. A drop of 20% takes a 25% rebound. A 30% decline takes a 42.9% bounce. The 7% stop loss applies to any stock purchase at any level. If you bought a stock at 45 and the buy point was at 43, you want to calculate the 7% sell rule from your purchase price.

What is the 70 30 Buffett rule investing? ›

What Is a 70/30 Portfolio? A 70/30 portfolio is an investment portfolio where 70% of investment capital is allocated to stocks and 30% to fixed-income securities, primarily bonds. Any portfolio can be broken down into different percentages this way, such as 80/20 or 60/40.

What is the Buffett's two list rule? ›

Buffett's Two Lists is a productivity, prioritisation and focusing approach where you write down your top 25 goals; circle your 5 highest priorities; then focus on those 5 while 'avoiding at all costs' doing anything on the remaining 20.

What is Peter Lynch's investment strategy? ›

Peter Lynch's investment strategy includes selecting stocks from companies that he is familiar with and then evaluating their business models, competitive landscapes, growth potential, and more before investing.

What is the golden rule level of investment? ›

The Golden Rule capital stock is the level at which MPK = δ, so that the marginal product of capital equals the depreciation rate. 3. When the economy begins above the Golden Rule level of capital, reaching the Golden Rule level leads to higher consumption at all points in time.

What is the Rule of 72 if you invest 1000? ›

This determines the number of years it will take for your investment to double. For example, if you invest $1,000 and the growth rate is 8 percent, all you have to do is divide 72 by eight, which is nine. That's to say, it will take approximately nine years for your $1,000 investment to become $2,000.

Why do investors use the Rule of 72? ›

The Rule of 72 is not precise, but is a quick way to get a useful ballpark figure. For investments without a fixed rate of return, you can instead divide 72 by the number of years you hope it will take to double your money. This will give you an estimate of the annual rate of return you'll need to achieve that goal.

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