Series I bonds are ‘still a good deal’ despite an expected falling rate in May, experts say (2024)

Jetcityimage | Istock | Getty Images

The annual rate for Series I bonds could fall below 5% in May based on the latest inflation data and other factors, experts predict.

That would be lower than the current 5.27% interest on I bond purchases made before May 1, but higher than the 4.3% interest offered on new I bonds bought between May 1, 2023, and Oct. 31, 2023.

Despite the expected rate decline, I bonds are "still a good deal" for long-term investors, according to Ken Tumin, founder and editor of DepositAccounts.com, which closely tracks these assets.

More from Personal Finance:
What you can learn from the Biden, Harris 2023 tax returns
Biden releases formal proposal for new student loan forgiveness plan
Why a $100,000 income no longer buys the American Dream

Meanwhile, short-term investors currently have higher-yield options, such as Treasury bills, money market funds or some certificates of deposit.

Backed by the U.S. government, demand has soared for I bonds amid higher inflation, particularly after the annual rate hit 9.62% in May 2022. Next month, the rate could drop to around 4.27%, some experts predict.

How the I bond rate works

The U.S. Department of the Treasury adjusts I bond rates every May and November. That yield changes based on a variable and fixed portion.

The Treasury adjusts the variable part every six months based on the consumer price index, which is a key measure of inflation. The agency can change the fixed portion or keep it the same.

The fixed portion of the I bond rate stays the same for investors after purchase. The variable rate portion resets every six months starting on the investor's I bond purchase date, not when the Treasury Department announces rate adjustments. You can find each rate by purchase datehere.

Currently, the variable rate is 3.94% and the fixed rate is 1.3%, for a combined rounded yield of 5.27% for I bonds purchased between Nov. 1 and April 30.

The 1.3% fixed rate "makes it very attractive" for investors who want to preserve purchasing power long term, according to Tumin.

How the fixed rate could change

Since the variable rate for I bonds is based on six months of inflation data, experts agree it will fall from 3.94% to 2.96% in May. The fixed portion is harder to predict because the Treasury does not disclose its formula for changes.

David Enna, founder of Tipswatch.com, a website thattracks Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS,and I bond rates, expects the fixed rate will be 1.2% or 1.3% in May.

But "1.4% is not out of the question," he said.

Enna looks at a half-year average of real yields for 5- and 10-year TIPS to predict fixed rate changes. The real yield reflects how much TIPS investors earn yearly above inflation until maturity.

A possible fixed rate change from 1.3% to 1.4% "isn't enough to make a huge difference," but investors always prefer the higher rate, he added.

Don’t miss these exclusives from CNBC PRO

Series I bonds are ‘still a good deal’ despite an expected falling rate in May, experts say (1)

watch now

VIDEO5:2405:24

'Not surprising' that Fed doesn't yet have confidence to cut rates, says BNY Mellon CEO

Series I bonds are ‘still a good deal’ despite an expected falling rate in May, experts say (2024)

FAQs

Series I bonds are ‘still a good deal’ despite an expected falling rate in May, experts say? ›

The annual rate for Series I bonds could fall below 5% in May based on inflation and other factors, financial experts say. That would be lower than the current 5.27% interest on I bond purchases made before May 1, but higher than the 4.3% interest offered on new I bonds bought between May 1, 2023, and Oct. 31, 2023.

Should I buy I bonds now or wait until May 2024? ›

At an initial rate of 4.28%, buying an I bond today gets roughly 1% less compared to the 5.25% 12-month Treasury Bill rate (May 1, 2024). You could say that buying an I Bond right now is a 'fair deal' historically compared to 2021 & 2022 when I Bond rates were much higher than comparable interest rate products.

Should I buy I bonds in April or May? ›

If the fixed rate on May 1 stays at 1.30% or goes down, those who bought in April will definitely be better off, having snagged the current rate of 5.27% for their first six months. And that 6-month rate is a certainty, not a guess, for April-issued I bonds.

What is the current interest rate for the Series I bonds? ›

Series I bonds will pay 4.28% annual interest from May 1 through October 2024, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced Tuesday. Linked to inflation, the latest I bond rate is down from the 5.27% annual rate offered since November and slightly lower than the 4.3% from May 2023.

Is there a downside to Series I bonds? ›

I bond cons

The initial rate is only guaranteed for the first six months of ownership. After that, the rate can fall, down to a fixed-rate component which, as of May 2024, stood at 1.3%. One-year lockup.

How long should you hold series I bonds? ›

Can I cash it in before 30 years? You can cash in (redeem) your I bond after 12 months. However, if you cash in the bond in less than 5 years, you lose the last 3 months of interest. For example, if you cash in the bond after 18 months, you get the first 15 months of interest.

How much is a $100 savings bond worth after 20 years? ›

How to get the most value from your savings bonds
Face ValuePurchase Amount20-Year Value (Purchased May 2000)
$50 Bond$100$109.52
$100 Bond$200$219.04
$500 Bond$400$547.60
$1,000 Bond$800$1,095.20
May 7, 2024

Should I wait until May 1st to buy I bonds? ›

It's a 'better bet' to buy I bonds now

Enna expects the fixed rate will be 1.2% or 1.3% in May, based on the half-year average of real yields for 5- and 10-year TIPS. However, long-term investors could be disappointed if they purchase in April and the Treasury announces a higher fixed interest rate in May.

Are series I bonds a good investment? ›

I bonds are generally safe investments. So they can be good options for people who prefer lower-risk portfolios, said Micheal Collins, founder and CEO at WinCap Financial. I bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.

Is it a good or bad time to buy bonds? ›

Answer: Now may be the perfect time to invest in bonds. Yields are at levels you could only dream of 15 years ago, so you'd be locking in substantial, regular income. And, of course, bonds act as a diversifier to your stock portfolio.

Where can I get 7% interest on my money? ›

7% Interest Savings Accounts: What You Need To Know
  • As of May 2024, no banks are offering 7% interest rates on savings accounts.
  • Two credit unions have high-interest checking accounts: Landmark Credit Union Premium Checking with 7.50% APY and OnPath Credit Union High Yield Checking with 7.00% APY.

Can I bonds lose value? ›

You can count on a Series I bond to hold its value; that is, the bond's redemption value will not decline.

What is a better investment than I bonds? ›

Bottom line. If inflation and investment safety are your chief concerns — TIPS and I-bonds deliver both. TIPS offer greater liquidity and the higher yearly limit allows you to stash far more cash in TIPS than I-bonds. If you're saving for education, I-bonds may be the way to go.

What will my bond rate be in May 2024? ›

May 1, 2024. Series EE savings bonds issued May 2024 through October 2024 will earn an annual fixed rate of 2.70% and Series I savings bonds will earn a composite rate of 4.28%, a portion of which is indexed to inflation every six months. The EE bond fixed rate applies to a bond's 20-year original maturity.

What is the loophole for Series I bonds? ›

Normally, you're limited to purchasing $10,000 per person on electronic Series I bonds per year. However, the government allows those with a federal tax refund to invest up to $5,000 of that refund into paper I bonds. So most investors think their annual investment tops out at $15,000 – one of the key I bond myths.

How do you avoid taxes on Series I bonds? ›

You can skip paying taxes on interest earned with Series EE and Series I savings bonds if you're using the money to pay for qualified higher education costs. That includes expenses you pay for yourself, your spouse or a qualified dependent. Only certain qualified higher education costs are covered, including: Tuition.

What will the new I bond rate be in May? ›

May 1, 2024. Series EE savings bonds issued May 2024 through October 2024 will earn an annual fixed rate of 2.70% and Series I savings bonds will earn a composite rate of 4.28%, a portion of which is indexed to inflation every six months. The EE bond fixed rate applies to a bond's 20-year original maturity.

When should I move my money to bonds? ›

During a bear market environment, bonds are typically viewed as safe investments. That's because when stock prices fall, bond prices tend to rise. When a bear market goes hand in hand with a recession, it's typical to see bond prices increasing and yields falling just before the recession reaches its deepest point.

Do you pay taxes on I bonds? ›

How much tax do I owe on my I bonds? Interest on I bonds is exempt from state and local taxes but taxed at the federal level at ordinary income-tax rates.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Aron Pacocha

Last Updated:

Views: 6306

Rating: 4.8 / 5 (68 voted)

Reviews: 83% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Aron Pacocha

Birthday: 1999-08-12

Address: 3808 Moen Corner, Gorczanyport, FL 67364-2074

Phone: +393457723392

Job: Retail Consultant

Hobby: Jewelry making, Cooking, Gaming, Reading, Juggling, Cabaret, Origami

Introduction: My name is Aron Pacocha, I am a happy, tasty, innocent, proud, talented, courageous, magnificent person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.