Is now a good time to invest in a bond fund? | Fidelity UK (2024)

Important information - the value of investments and the income from them, can go down as well as up, so you may get back less than you invest.

Important information: The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, so you may get back less than you invest.

The sharp increase in inflation and interest rates over the last two years has created a difficult backdrop for bonds, many of which have experienced significant price falls, with the yields rising accordingly. Recently however there have been signs of a recovery, mainly due to the growing belief that the rate hiking cycle may be over.

Nothing is certain, as it all depends on the inflation and economic data going forwards, but the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank have all intimated that interest rates are close to peaking. If this turns out to be the case then bond prices should rise, offering the prospect of capital gains on top of the income.

Another argument in their favour is their value as a diversifier. There is a risk that high interest rates could trigger a severe recession, which may send many share prices lower, but could accelerate the pace of rate cuts and be beneficial for parts of the bond market.

Higher-quality credit, such as government bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds, should hold up better during an economic slowdown and offer more attractive yields than they have done for years. There are several options like this in our Select 50 list of handpicked funds for anyone who wants to go down this route.

One such is the Colchester Global Bond Fund that mainly invests in government debt from around the world. This gives it plenty of flexibility to protect investors’ capital and add value, with the current distribution yield being 2.42%. Please note this is not guaranteed.

Another possibility is the iShares Overseas Government Bond Index Fund that tracks a benchmark of international government debt excluding the UK. It has a slightly lower distribution yield of 2.19%.

The holds at least 70% of its portfolio in investment grade bonds denominated or hedged back into sterling, but can also invest in government and high yield debt. Corporates typically pay a higher income, hence the distribution yield of 3.89%.

A higher risk alternative is that invests the majority of its assets in government and corporate bonds from anywhere in the world including emerging markets. It has a longer modified duration of 7.53 years and is exposed to a host of different currencies, but has a higher distribution yield of 4.63% to compensate.

More cautious investors may prefer to invest in short-dated, government or high-quality corporate bonds. These are less sensitive to inflation and interest rates and could offer a decent low-risk return with the potential to outperform cash.

One option that provides this type of exposure is the AXA Sterling Credit Short Duration Bond Fund, which invests the majority of its assets in sterling denominated investment grade bonds with a bias towards shorter maturities. It holds a low-risk portfolio targeting modest but reliable interest payments and has an underlying yield of 3.7%.

Alternatively there is the passively managed Vanguard Global Short-Term Bond Index Fund that has a much higher proportion of its assets invested in government related bonds. Some would argue that this makes it lower risk than other types of bonds, which could explain the lower yield of 1.96%.

In total there are 11 bond funds on the Select 50 to choose from, covering a wide variety of bonds issued by governments and companies from around the world.

Select 50 bond funds

  • AXA Sterling Credit Short Duration Bond Fund
  • Colchester Global Bond Fund
  • iShares ESG Overseas Corporate Bond Fund
  • iShares Overseas Government Bond Index Fund
  • JPM Global High Yield Bond Fund
  • Royal London Short Duration Global Index Linked Fund

Important information -investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon. Overseas investments will be affected by movements in currency exchange rates. Investments in emerging markets can be more volatile than other more developed markets. There is a risk that the issuers of bonds may not be able to repay the money they have borrowed or make interest payments. When interest rates rise, bonds may fall in value. Rising interest rates may cause the value of your investment to fall. Sub-investment grade bonds are considered riskier bonds. They have an increased risk of default which could affect both income and the capital value of the Fund investing in them. Due to the greater possibility of default an investment in a corporate bond is generally less secure than an investment in government bonds. The Key Information Document (KID) for Fidelity and non-Fidelity funds is available in English and can be obtained from our website at www.fidelity.co.uk. Select 50 is not a personal recommendation to buy or sell a fund. This information is not a personal recommendation for any particular investment. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment you should speak to one ofFidelity’s advisers or an authorised financial adviser of your choice.

Is now a good time to invest in a bond fund? | Fidelity UK (2024)

FAQs

Is this a good time to be in a bond fund? ›

If an investor is looking for reliable income, now can be a good time to consider investment-grade bonds. If an investor is looking to diversify their portfolio, they should consider a medium-term investment-grade bond fund which could benefit if and when the Fed pivots from raising interest rates.

Are bonds a good investment in the UK? ›

Bonds can be a great option for offsetting the risk of some of your other investments. Relative safety: Due to the high likelihood that you'll recover all of your capital, particularly if you buy gilts, investing in bonds is typically a safe option for investing.

Are bonds still a good investment in 2024? ›

As inflation finally seems to be coming under control, and growth is slowing as the global economy feels the full impact of higher interest rates, 2024 could be a compelling year for bonds.

What is the prediction for bond funds? ›

Why it matters: We see the potential for better risk-adjusted returns for bonds than stocks. Vanguard's forecasts show there's a 50% chance that U.S. aggregate bonds will return about as much over the next five years as U.S. equities— 4.3% for bonds versus 4.5% for stocks—with one-third of the median volatility.

Are bond funds good right now? ›

Answer: Now may be the perfect time to invest in bonds. Yields are at levels you could only dream of 15 years ago, so you'd be locking in substantial, regular income. And, of course, bonds act as a diversifier to your stock portfolio.

Should I move to bond funds? ›

Bonds offer income and some volatility protection. Pick out the right bond fund for your portfolio. Having a diversified portfolio means you should have some of your money in bonds. Bonds can not only offer some protection against market volatility, but they also generate income.

Are UK bonds recovering? ›

We expect UK bonds to deliver annualised2 returns of around 4.4%-5.4% over the next decade, compared with the 0.8%-1.8% 10-year annualised returns we expected at the end of 2021, before the rate-hiking cycle began.

Will bonds recover in 2024 in the UK? ›

While lower-rated bonds have been strong performers in 2023, we think the market is going to be more discerning as we head into 2024. We expect higher quality bonds will be the best bond performers over the next year. We also think performance will be more dispersed than it has been.

What is the outlook for UK bonds? ›

According to our latest forecasts, we now expect UK and global ex-UK (GBP hedged) bonds to return around 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively, on an annualised basis over the next decade, compared with our previous 10-year annualised forecasts of 1.3% and 1.3%, respectively, before the rate-hiking cycle began.

Should I buy bonds when interest rates are high? ›

Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.

What happens to bonds after 5 years? ›

Once a Series I bond is five years old, there is no interest penalty for redemption. Question: Can you determine what the value of a Series I bond will be in future years? inflation rate can vary. You can count on a Series I bond to hold its value; that is, the bond's redemption value will not decline.

Will the bond market recover? ›

We expect bond yields to decline in line with falling inflation and slower economic growth, but uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy moves will likely be a source of volatility. Nonetheless, we are optimistic that fixed income will deliver positive returns in 2024.

Why are bond funds losing money? ›

The share prices of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in bonds typically go lower when interest rates rise. When market interest rates rise, the fixed rate paid by existing bonds becomes less attractive, sinking these bonds' prices.

Will bonds ever be a good investment again? ›

There are indications that interest rates may start to fall in the near future, with widespread anticipation for multiple interest rate cuts in 2024. Falling rates offer the potential for capital appreciation and increased diversification benefits for bond investors.

When should I invest more in bonds? ›

Investing in bonds when interest rates have peaked can yield higher returns. However, rising interest rates reward bond investors who reinvest their principal over time. It's hard to time the bond market. If your goal for investing in bonds is to reduce portfolio risk and volatility, it's best not to wait.

Is now a good time to invest in fixed rate bonds? ›

With interest rates as high as they've been for 16 years, but with many experts predicting they may fall in the coming months, it could be a good time to take advantage of fixed-rate bonds.

Should I put money in a bond fund? ›

Buying individual bonds can provide increased control and transparency, but typically requires a greater commitment of time and financial resources. Investing in bond funds can make it easier to achieve broad diversification with a lower dollar commitment, but offers less control.

Do bond funds do well when interest rates rise? ›

In the short run, rising interest rates may negatively affect the value of a bond portfolio. However, over the long run, rising interest rates can actually increase a bond portfolio's overall return. This is because money from maturing bonds can be reinvested into new bonds with higher yields.

Should I wait to cash in bonds? ›

Depending on the interest rate of your bond and your own financial needs, it's generally beneficial to wait until full maturity to redeem them.

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