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Hilary Blandy looks ahead to 2024, asking what makes the UK different on inflation and whether parts of the bond market might crash into a ‘maturity wall’.
Inflation in the UK has clearly been on an improving trend throughout 2023. At the time of writing the most recent figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are from November, at which point the UK’s rate of Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) was 3.9%, significantly down from the 10.1% figure from January 2023. 1
So, is the UK out of the woods when it comes to inflationary worries? I would argue not. Annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) for UK workers is currently at one of the highest levels since comparable records began in 2001, according to the ONS. What is more, at 7.3%, pay growth is exerting upward pressure on the headline level of CPI. 2 Whilst the near-term outlook looks promising for the path of inflation, I believe that inflation may start to tick up again unless there is a material change in the jobs market
What makes the UK different?
There are other factors, specific to the UK and not present for its developed market peers, that in my view will also conspire to slow at which inflation falls. The way the UK’s energy market is regulated means that energy costs remained higher for longer than in many other markets resulting in a longer period of sustained upward pressure on inflation. At the same time, the size of the UK’s workforce has been slower to recover from the dip seen during the pandemic. The corresponding lack of workers in the UK is helping to drive pay growth.
Furthermore, the UK had more strikes in 2023 than any other year since the 1980s. Despite some deals being struck, many workers have still seen their pay fall in real terms compared to before the pandemic. Unions may therefore be encouraged by success achieved so far and continue to ask for more pay, even with inflation dropping. There’s also the election factor. With a general election widely expected to take place sometime in 2024, there will be an incentive for the government to increase spending which may ultimately result in further upward pressure on inflation. This may lead to elevated risk of another interest rate rise or at least require the Bank of England to maintain rates at high levels for longer.
The interest rate question is a critical one for bond investors. Views across the market clearly will differ, but my own take is that the Bank of England may fail to deliver the level of interest rate cuts that bond markets seem to expect in 2024 without a very big rise in the unemployment rate and at the same time a slowdown of pay growth. While those outcomes are possible in theory, they are not what I would most expect to transpire in 2024.
Companies with robust balance sheets can absorb higher rates
With interest rates at such high levels, companies have not been eager to refinance their existing bonds – naturally, firms do not want to pay higher interest rates – but as maturity dates loom, companies will be forced to refinance. When they do so, I would anticipate the average coupon (i.e. the cost of debt for issuers) to rise and this will have adverse effects for the companies issuing those bonds.
Bonds issued by companies with relatively high credit ratings (‘investment grade bonds’) have been slow to feel the impact of interest rate changes so far and I would expect these companies should be able to handle the higher cost of debt quite easily. However, higher debt costs will still need to be accounted for elsewhere, for example by raising prices or cutting costs.
In the ‘high yield’ part of the bond market (where companies have lower credit ratings than ‘investment grade’ bonds) the rising cost of debt is potentially more problematic as companies issuing these bonds sometimes won’t have robust enough financial health to absorb these higher costs.
Will high yield crash into a maturity wall?
The lack of eagerness of companies to refinance their debts by issuing new bonds in 2023 has created worries around a ‘maturity wall’ in 2025/2026 when a high level of refinancing may need to occur as outstanding bonds reach maturity and companies need to issue new bonds to replace them at new (and in this case, probably higher) interest rates.
As usual, the key is in the detail. Companies do have other levers they can pull to manage their debt; for example, stopping returns of capital to shareholders or slashing their own capital expenditure, although this may leave little wiggle room in an environment of slower economic growth. Another strategy that has become popular in the current high interest rate environment is the use of “Amend and Extend”. This tactic is usually used when companies think that investor demand would be insufficient to achieve a normal bond refinancing, but when the situation is not seen to be bad enough to require a full restructuring. These solutions are usually based on the implicit assumption on both sides that the interest rate environment will improve and that a full refinancing will be done at market terms and at lower rates. Pushing the problem further into the future in this way is risky, in my view.
Finding the sweet spot in 2024
My expectation for 2024 is that it will offer a great chance for bond investors to potentially benefit from the high yields that the asset class currently offers, providing that credit research teams can be successful in telling the difference between companies that can refinance their bonds easily and those that might have difficulties.
For investors like us that are able to balance the two, a mix of investment grade and high yield bonds – backed up by smart credit research – I expect there will be some enticing opportunities available in 2024.
- Currency (FX) Risk – Bonds can be exposed to different currencies and movements in foreign exchange rates can cause the value of investments to fall as well as rise.
- Interest Rate Risk – Bonds are assets whose value is sensitive to changes in interest rates meaning that the value of these investments may fluctuate significantly with movement in interest rates.e.g. the value of a bond tends to decrease when interest rates rise
- Pricing Risk – Price movements in financial assets mean the value of assets can fall as well as rise, with this risk typically amplified in more volatile market conditions.
- Credit Risk – The issuer of a bond or a similar investment may not pay income or repay capital when it is due.
Outlook 2024: A pivotal year?
Periods of transition often raise interesting questions, and this year investors are faced with plenty as they look ahead to what 2024 may bring. Will Western central banks finally start cutting interest rates? Will geopolitical tensions calm or further escalate? And what might a fraught US Presidential election mean for the world?
Outlook 2024 Articles
Outlook 2024: Why quality matters in European equities
Outlook 2024: Why quality matters in European equities
Mark Nichols and Mark Heslop discuss investing in quality growth companies in Europe and how these companies are better able to manage macroeconomic challenges.
Read time - 6 min.
03.01.2024
Outlook 2024: India’s booming as voters back pro-growth Modi
Outlook 2024: India’s booming as voters back pro-growth Modi
Avinash Vazirani expects India’s economy to build on its strengths in 2024, which should bode well for investors. Will Modi secure a third term as President?
Read time - 6 min.
03.01.2024
Outlook 2024: Rampant debt and a rancorous election
Outlook 2024: Rampant debt and a rancorous election
The Jupiter Merlin team discuss their 2024 outlook, when central banks may battle with markets over policy. Meanwhile, an extraordinary US election approaches.
Read time - 6 min.
02.01.2024
The value of active minds: independent thinking
A key feature of Jupiter’s investment approach is that we eschew the adoption of a house view, instead preferring to allow our specialist fund managers to formulate their own opinions on their asset class. As a result, it should be noted that any views expressed – including on matters relating to environmental, social and governance considerations – are those of the author(s), and may differ from views held by other Jupiter investment professionals.
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This document is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. We recommend you discuss any investment decisions with a financial adviser, particularly if you are unsure whether an investment is suitable. Jupiter is unable to provide investment advice.Past performance is no guide to the future.Market and exchange rate movements can cause the value of an investment to fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than originally invested. The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing are not necessarily those of Jupiter as a whole and may be subject to change. This is particularly true during periods of rapidly changing market circ*mstances. For definitions please see the glossary at jupiteram.com. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of any information provided but no assurances or warranties are given. Company examples are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Jupiter Unit Trust Managers Limited (JUTM) and Jupiter Asset Management Limited (JAM), registered address: The Zig Zag Building, 70 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 6SQ are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the prior permission of JUTM or JAM.
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Jupiter Asset Management Limited (JAM), Jupiter Unit Trust Managers Limited (JUTM), Jupiter Fund Management plc (JFM) Jupiter Investment Management Group Limited (JIMG) and Jupiter Investment Management Limited (JIML) are registered in England and Wales (with company registration numbers 2036243 (JAM), 2009040 (JUTM), 6150195 (JFM), 792030 (JIMG) and 02949554 (JIML). The registered address of each of these is The Zig Zag Building, 70 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 6SQ. JUTM, JAM and JIML are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the references 122488 (JUTM), 141274 (JAM) and 171847 (JIML). Jupiter Asset Management International S.A. (JAMI, the Management Company), registered address: 5, Rue Heienhaff, Senningerberg L-1736, Luxembourg which is authorised and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. Jupiter Asset Management (Europe) Limited (JAMEL), the Irish Management Company), registered address: 32 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2, D02 Y512, Ireland which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For company contact details click the link at the top of the page. Full legal information can be viewed by clicking the link above. No part of this site may be reproduced in any manner without the prior permission of Jupiter Asset Management Limited. ©2022 Jupiter Fund Management plc
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