2024 MLB Mock Draft 1.0: Who will go No. 1 to the Guardians? (2024)

Conference tournaments have concluded, NCAA regionals matchups have been announced and high school private workout season is in full swing. That means the 2024 draft class has come into enough focus to put together my first full mock draft of the year before the MLB draft begins on July 14.

Industry evaluators' perception of the top of this draft class has taken a big step forward over the course of the season. It's a college-heavy group throughout the first round, with some solid high school and college pitching depth near the end of the round, and light on high school position players.

With a very clear tier of 10 players at the top (you can jump into my latest draft rankings for more on that), it's likely that group makes up eight or nine of the first 10 picks. I say eight or nine because financial incentives exist, given the draft's bonus pool structure, for at least one team in the top 10 picks to opt for savings for a later selection if they don't like the players and asking prices they're left with from that top group. The prospects who fell the furthest from my rankings are among the surprises you will find in this mock draft.

1. Cleveland Guardians

Charlie Condon, 3B, Georgia

This is the typical silly season for rumors on No. 1 overall picks in years without a slam-dunk top player -- and this is especially so when a progressive, value-oriented club like Cleveland is picking first and is interested in the best player given the price. The buzz for weeks that Travis Bazzana has more momentum here than Condon seems to be right on time to start pushing prices down on the players Cleveland actually wants. How this pick plays out isn't a done deal by any stretch (I'd bet it won't be until draft day, likely later in the day), so acting like this is likely to be any one player would be premature. Given what I know right now, I'll go with the consensus best player.

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2. Cincinnati Reds

Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest

Burns is in the mix at basically all of these top picks, but there are also scenarios where he falls out of the top five, so he may come at a slight discount if selected at picks two or three. It may not be the consensus view, but there are scouting directors who think Burns is better than Paul Skenes was as a draft prospect; you can't deny their pitch grades and arsenals are pretty similar. The industry belief is Condon and Jac Caglianone are also leading options here.

3. Colorado Rockies

Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State

If Bazzana doesn't go first, he's perceived to have landing spots at Nos. 3 or 4. Colorado seems to be the floor for Condon, and the Rockies are also on Burns and Caglianone. This is also left-hander Hagen Smith's first real potential landing spot.

4. Oakland Athletics

Jac Caglianone, 1B, Florida

Most scouting directors have the same group of names going in the first four picks, but the order may be shuffled a bit, with the names also similar across the industry for Nos. 5-10. Oakland has been on Nick Kurtz for months (his shoulder issues could push him down the board if he doesn't go here), and this is believed to be Braden Montgomery's first possible landing spot. (He should go between Nos. 4-7.)

5. Chicago White Sox

Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas

Given the success the White Sox have found with lower-slot lefties Garrett Crochet and Noah Schultz, Smith sure seems to fit their type, and the industry buzz matches that. I think Chicago would take any of the first four players in this projection if they happen to fall here. Otherwise, they're tied to Smith as their top choice of the next handful of players.

6. Kansas City Royals

Braden Montgomery, RF, Texas A&M

K.C. has been tied to almost every player in the top 10. I think they'd also take any of the first four projected picks if they get to this spot. They've also been linked to the top prep bats -- Bryce Rainer and Konnor Griffin -- but I think those are secondary choices. For later picks, the Royals have been tied to almost every prep pitcher in the draft, so I have a good chuckle whenever I get a phone call that another one comes up tied to them.

7. St. Louis Cardinals

J.J. Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia

If you grade out Wetherholt vs. Bazzana, their tools aren't that different. Bazzana has had a spring for the ages, and Wetherholt missed much of West Virginia's season with a hamstring issue, but there are teams that think Wetherholt is the better option when you factor in the likely bonus price. There's a lot of buzz that Rainer is the leading option here; he just doesn't really fit with the Cardinals' draft history, so I couldn't project him with Wetherholt on the board. Montgomery also has been tied to the Cardinals.

8. Los Angeles Angels

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest

The Angels like to take college players and get them to the big leagues quickly, so Kurtz makes sense with his Anthony Rizzo vibes. James Tibbs is another option, with some scouts doing the Wetherholt/Bazzana-style comparison with Kurtz and Tibbs; they are more similar than you think, with Tibbs perceived to come with a discount in the top 10 while Kurtz likely won't. I think whichever of the clear top eight college players gets here will be the Angels' pick, and in this case only one of them gets here. This is also the first pick where you start hearing some wacky names mentioned -- the Angels have been a mainstay for strange rumors the past few years -- with college catcher Walker Janek and Caleb Lomavita joining Tibbs in the rumor mill for this pick.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates

James Tibbs, RF, Florida State

It is not ridiculous to think the first nine picks could all be college players. Tibbs has a lot of support for Nos. 8-15 and is one of the true consensus hitters every team admires about the same amount. Prep lefty Cam Caminiti's conversation starts here, but the belief in the industry is that this will be a college pick.

10. Washington Nationals

Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard Westlake (Calif.) HS

This pick is starting to feel like the spot where you can count on one of the two elite high school position players in this class landing. The Nats historically have loved to take high-upside prep prospects in the draft, and that seems like a strong possibility even with a new scouting group in place this season. Rainer has a little broader support throughout the industry, but because he'll be 19 years old on draft day, model-based teams lean to Konnor Griffin. Washington is in a good spot picking 10th in a year with a top tier of 10 players and a good shot that Tibbs or one other college player from the lower tier jumps up; the Nats will have a couple of good options that they won't have to go overslot to sign.

11. Detroit Tigers

Caleb Lomavita, C, Cal

Lomavita has a lot of late helium into this area and probably goes somewhere between Nos. 8-17. He has plus tools, but his weakness is his chase rate, something that teams have had some success improving in pro ball. Cam Caminiti is a real factor here, as is Trey Yesavage (who recently suffered a partially collapsed lung that teams are still learning about). I also can't rule out Griffin, as Detroit isn't scared to take a prep player early. Detroit figures to have a number of solid options and could go with any of the four major player categories.

12. Boston Red Sox

Konnor Griffin, SS, Jackson Prep (Miss.) HS

The Red Sox have been tied to the best available college prospects (Yesavage, Seaver King, Tommy White, Malcolm Moore) and this is the high-water mark for a rising college prospect in Ryan Waldschmidt. But Boston seems open enough to high school players to take Rainer (Corey Seager is the common comp) or Griffin (I like Fernando Tatis Jr. as his best comp) if either falls this far. The Red Sox also like Carter Johnson and Braylon Doughty, but this is a bit rich for them.

13. San Francisco Giants

Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro (Ariz.) HS

Caminiti (cousin of Ken) is the consensus (but not unanimous) best prep pitcher in this draft class. He has potential landing spots at Nos. 9, 11, 13 or 15, but there's always a chance he goes a bit later for more money for a team willing to hand out a hefty bonus to land him. The Giants are also on Yesavage and King with Billy Amick as an under-the-radar option.

14. Chicago Cubs

Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest

King was the hot name in the transfer portal at this time last year, coming from Division-II Wingate to Wake Forest and showing standout tools with a strong performance this spring. He fits at a number of spots from 11-18 and matches the drafting profile of many teams in this range. This is likely the floor for Tibbs and the Cubs are tied to some high-upside types, such as Kellon Lindsey, even if this is early for him relative to expectations.

15. Seattle Mariners

Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina

This is the floor for Yesavage, who likely lands somewhere between Nos. 11-15, with every team picking in this range interested in the third-best college arm in the draft. The M's are on Caminiti, fellow prep lefty Kash Mayfield, and the third-best prep position player Theo Gillen.

16. Miami Marlins

Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee

Moore was perceived to be behind teammate Billy Amick in the draft a month ago but has now overtaken him with a blazing-hot finish. Miami is tied to ACC/SEC position players, which also is what the board is giving them at this point. This is also the first spot prep SS Carter Johnson and RF P.J. Morlando come up, though they likely land later.

17. Milwaukee Brewers

Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford

The Brewers often have a unique take on catchers, particularly on valuing their defense via framing, and it's worked out well on William Contreras. Accordingly, they're getting mentioned with a lot of this deep college catching class. This may be Lomavita's floor, Moore is often mentioned and Janek also comes up. There are two other types Milwaukee often takes that could come into play here: pitchers with explosive stuff (Brody Brecht or William Schmidt both fit) and hit-first infielders (Gillen and Kaelen Culpepper both fit).

18. Tampa Bay Rays

Cameron Smith, 3B, Florida State

The Rays aren't scared to take a prep pitcher, so they get tied to the various prep arms who could go in this range. This is the stopping point for Caminiti if he gets this far. Tampa Bay also likes to take big hitters with power, and Smith fits that to a T. Waldschmidt and Lindsey are potential fits here as well.

19. New York Mets

Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa

President of baseball operations David Stearns comes from Milwaukee and was in Houston before that, and new VP of amateur scouting Kris Gross came from Houston. So in their first draft in charge of the Mets, they're believed to be looking at the types of players those two orgs have historically taken. That means explosive athletes and big raw stuff. Brecht fits that profile perfectly and will go in this range. Mississippi State's Dakota Jordan and North Carolina's Vance Honeycutt are the two best athletes in the college ranks and still on the board here.

20. Toronto Blue Jays

Theo Gillen, 2B, Westlake (Texas) HS

Gillen may be a plus hitter and runner with at least average power, so there's a lot of support for him from picks 15- 25, but his poor throwing arm limits him to second base, or maybe center field. Toronto has been tied to a number of the college position players in this area, including Moore, Janek, Tommy White, Amick and Waldschmidt, while they've also been on Brecht and Morlando all spring.

21. Minnesota Twins

Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State

Janek is the defensive standout of this group of catchers who could go in the first round, but he's no slouch at the plate, hitting 17 homers and posting an OPS of 1.194. The Twins have been tied to prep righty Braylon Doughty (who is a popular name from picks 18-26), Slade Caldwell and Brecht.

22. Baltimore Orioles

Carson Benge, CF, Oklahoma State

Benge and Cameron Smith are the two college bats in this range who I think it is easiest to imagine fixing/adjusting their swings to succeed in the pros, and both of them come with the upside you'd normally find only in the prep ranks. Benge is a plus runner who also has a plus arm (he has been clocked into the mid-90s on the mound) along with strong underlying hitting metrics, so he likely won't get past this pick given his fit to Baltimore's historical prospect type. Kaelen Culpepper comes up here, as does Waldschmidt, along with Honeycutt and Kellon Lindsey, though they may be more likely to fit at No. 32.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers

Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State

Mayfield is tied here, as is Brecht, but Cijntje has been the college pitcher with the most helium over the past month, sitting at 95-98, mixing in a plus slider, and an occasional plus changeup, too. Yes, he is a switch-pitcher, but he is not throwing left-handed much at all at this point. I think he's likely to go in the 20s given how he's finishing the year. Lindsey and Slade Caldwell are also mentioned here.

24. Atlanta Braves

Ryan Waldschmidt, LF, Kentucky

Waldschmidt is another late riser in the SEC, with some of the best underlying TrackMan data in the country, right there with the hitters going in the top 10 picks. He's perceived to fit more with numbers-oriented clubs, and there's a lot of those in the back half of the first round. Benge, Cijntje, Sanford and Doughty are all heavily tied to Atlanta.

25. San Diego Padres

Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City (Okla.) HS

Mayfield is a high-upside prep lefty with above-average stuff, which has been GM A.J. Preller's type for some time. This is the area where more prep pitchers become viable options and the good college players seem to be drying up, so San Diego's general approach of taking prep players with upside fits what's on the board. William Schmidt, Doughty, Boston Bateman, Kellon Lindsey and Carter Johnson have all been mentioned. LSU's Gage Jump was a target of the Padres out of high school, but he may fit better at their second pick.

26. New York Yankees

Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee

The Yankees have been tied to Amick, Cijntje, Doughty, Benge, Waldschmidt, Bateman and Jonathan Santucci. Those last two may have a chance to get to New York's next pick.

27. Philadelphia Phillies

Tommy White, 3B, LSU

If you're a college baseball fan, you may be confused why White has lasted this long. He has a couple of potential landing spots in the top 20 picks, but most scouting directors think he goes somewhere around here. He's a fine-but-not-great defender at third base and still has chase rates that are much worse than average despite being super productive in college. Tommy Tanks just seems like he would fit in great with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in Philly's lineup.

28. Houston Astros

Dakota Jordan, RF, Mississippi State

Houston scouts were locked on Jordan at the SEC tournament, and there are evaluators who think Jordan has 80-grade speed and power, while every scout I've spoken with has at least 70 grades on both tools. The last guy to 80 on both of those tools? Bo Jackson. Jordan doesn't play center field and only attempted four stolen bases in 59 games this year, so his speed only really plays running to first base right now, and there's some swing-and-miss at the plate. That said, he should go in this range because his upside is enormous even if he isn't that polished. I think he'll be something like Marcell Ozuna (who played some center field into his mid-20s) if it all works out. The Astros like raw stuff and plus athleticism, so Honeycutt, Ryan Sloan, Wyatt Sanford, Billy Amick, Slade Caldwell and William Schmidt come up here, as well.

29. Arizona Diamondbacks

Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State

The Diamondbacks also pick at Nos. 31 and 35, so there are a lot of rumors about them moving money around within these picks. There are also a lot of high school players tied to these picks, as Arizona has the pool space to land a higher-ranked player down here (they like Gillen, but he likely won't get here on his own) or just scoop up a few high-upside types. Wyatt Sanford, Carter Johnson, Kellon Lindsey, Luke Dickerson, William Schmidt and Ryan Sloan have come up the most, while Culpepper fits the D-backs' type from the college ranks.

30. Texas Rangers

Carter Johnson, SS, Oxford (Ala.) HS

I think the Rangers are hoping some of the college position players off the board in this mock make it to this pick. It's more likely that they'll be choosing among the prep players mentioned in the Arizona blurb above. Johnson has the most buzz of that group at this pick.

Players in consideration for the next picks

High school position players

Texas SS Wyatt Sanford and Florida SS Kellon Lindsey are the two prep position players who, in this scenario, should go in the next couple of picks. South Carolina RF P.J. Morlando, Michigan SS Caleb Bonemer and Arkansas CF Slade Caldwell are also in that conversation. New Jersey SS Luke Dickerson, Pennsylvania 3B Chase Harlan and Kansas OF Eli Lovich are rising names in this area.

High school pitchers

The prep pitching demographic has a number of players who belong in this area on talent but will likely get paid later. California RHP Braylon Doughty, Illinois RHP Ryan Sloan and Louisiana RHP William Schmidt should get a top 30 bonus if not go in the top 30 picks. Iowa RHP Joey Oakie and California LHP Boston Bateman are just behind them, with a massive double-digit-sized group just behind that. Some rising names are Texas LHP Dasan Hill, New Jersey RHP Bryce Meccage and Idaho RHP Dax Whitney.

College position players

North Carolina CF Vance Honeycutt may sneak into the teens and has some homes in the 20s, but I think he will end up in the 30s. Virginia SS Griff O'Ferrall also qualifies in those ranges. A rising name is South Carolina C Cole Messina, who has ended the season red hot.

College pitchers

This is right about where several big conference pitchers should start coming off the board. Texas A&M LHP Ryan Prager, Vanderbilt RHP Bryce Cunningham, Duke LHP Jonathan Santucci, LSU RHP Luke Holman, Tennessee RHP Drew Beam and Alabama RHP Ben Hess all look like they'll go in the top 50 picks. Two rising names are LSU LHP Gage Jump and TCU LHP Payton Tolle, while Dallas Baptist RHP Ryan Johnson is an under-the-radar name in the top 50 picks.